A Democratic and a Republican Pollster Agree: This Is the Fault Line That Decides the Election

You’ve probably heard a lot about the gender gap in presidential politics by now. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are two vastly different candidates, and that has made the gap so intense that this election has become a battle between the sexes. So what else is there to know?

A lot. And this most of all: In modern presidential politics, the gender gap has never been wider, but it gets particularly large when we break out gender by educational attainment.

According to a recent poll by Pew research, the gender gap is 17 points, with Mr. Trump ahead 8 points among men and Ms. Harris up 9 points among women.

The gap by education is 29 points, with Mr. Trump ahead 10 points among people without a college degree and Ms. Harris ahead 19 points among those with one.

But broken up by gender and education, we see that the gaps are driven particularly by men without a college degree and women with a college degree, with an overall difference of 43 points.

We are truly looking at two different Americas when we dig into the views of men without college degrees and women with college degrees. They are at opposite ends of the spectrum politically and experience essentially separate economies, and therefore give priority to distinct sets of character traits and issues.

Let’s take a closer look. Women with college degrees, who are generally more financially secure than other women, name abortion as one of the key issues deciding their vote, while both women and men without degrees tend to focus more on issues affecting their day-to-day finances or safety. While inflation affects everyone, it hits non-college-educated voters who feel they are falling behind hardest, especially now that the unemployment rate has been rising among those with less than a high school diploma.

Our research indicates that economic issues matter deeply to many men without a college degree, who respond strongly to populist messages aimed at acknowledging their anxiety, sense of loss and resentment.

These two groups also consume media in entirely different ways, which affects what they see and hear. Men — including those without college degrees — often spend time on X and Reddit, and many listen to podcasts and YouTube personalities concentrating on gaming, sports and politics. Women are more likely to frequent TikTok, Instagram and Facebook. Many seem more focused on content about personal growth, true crime and style.

Read the rest here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/30/opinion/gender-education-gap.html